Why El Nino rains might not pour in August!
Heavy rains are expected to pound Kenya from September or October as a result of El Niño, likely bringing flooding, flash floods and landslides.
El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years.
World Meteorological Organisation in early July declared the onset of El Niño conditions calling on all governments, including Kenya, to put in place measures to reduce the phenomenon's impact on people’s health, the ecosystems and the economy.
Even before the WHO announcement, Kenya had indicated it is monitoring Rift Valley Fever, cholera and malaria among other diseases ahead of the expected El Nino rains.
According to WMO, El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
But Kenya is yet to witness heavy rainfall despite WMO declaring the onset of El Niño.
The Director of Meteorological Services Dr David Gikungu, explains that El Niño rains usually occur from October to December (OND) and not June, July and August.
According to Dr Gikunju, El Niño is not necessarily a direct cause of heavy rainfall.
“While it can impact weather patterns and result in heavier-than-normal rainfall, the effects of El Niño can vary significantly between events,” he says.
“For instance, the 1987 OND season was an El Niño event that did not result in heavy rainfall over the country. Additionally, in 2015, the El Niño index was higher than that of 1997 but the country did not experience as much rainfall as it did in 1997. KMD is monitoring the situation and will be providing timely updates to the public.”
In March 2023, WMO had predicted a heavy downpour from this month.
El Niño is characterised with heavy and prolonged rainfall while La Niña is associated with persistent drought which is currently hitting Kenya and the rest of Africa.
Global temperatures increase by about 0.2C during an El Niño episode and fall about 0.2C during La Niña. El Niño means warmer water spreads further and stays closer to the surface. This releases more heat into the atmosphere, creating wetter and warmer air.
The El Niño and La Niña phenomenon occurs naturally. But it is taking place against a background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, and making our weather more extreme.
In 2021, United Nation’s climate scientists concluded that there was no clear evidence that climate change has affected El Niño or La Niña events.
“The chances of El Niño developing between April were 15 percent and were gradually expected to increase to 35 percent in May-July. Long-lead forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher chance (55 percent) of El Niño developing,” says WMO report.
Kenya is currently staring at a sixth unsuccessful rainy season in a row, with hopes now mostly resting on an El Nino event.
Experts, however, have warned that El Nino rains could impact negatively farm produce in Kenya as they could come during the harvest season, leading to losses and further causing disruptions in the food value chain.
According to the forecasts, commodity prices, already impacted by the ongoing drought, could continue their upward trend into the new year.
Kenya has been reeling from prolonged droughts due to failed rains.
In April, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) predicted that below-normal rainfall was expected in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) from May to August.
The probability for drier than normal rainfall, according to ICPAC, was to be experienced in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda; and parts of Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Tanzania, and western South Sudan.
On the other hand, wetter than normal conditions were expected over the cross-border areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
