Kenyans facing acute food insecurity to hit 5.4 million by June 2023 – report

File: A granary used for grain storage in Machakos County, Kenya.

The number of hungry Kenyans is expected to hit 5.4 million in the next three months, a new report by National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) shows.

According to the report, about 4.4 million Kenyans are currently in dire need of food but the number will increase to 5.4 million – 11 percent of Kenyans – by June, this year.

Out of the 4.4 million hungry people, 3.6 million are in crisis category while the remaining 800,000 are in emergency category. Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir and Garissa counties have the highest proportions (55 per cent) of their populations in crisis.

Disturbingly, the report also shows that the number of hungry counties has increased from 23 – that are categorised as arid and semi-arid areas (ASAL) to 32.

Non- ASAL counties whose 495,362 people are in dire need of food include Machakos, Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kiambu, Nakuru, Kirinyaga and Murang’a.

“Due to prolonged drought, the nutrition status of children and women has worsened. Consequently, 970,214 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,179 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished compared to 884,464 children aged 6-59 months and 115,724 women reported in July 2022” the report says.

These women and children, the report says, are in urgent need of life-saving treatment for malnutrition.

The most affected counties are Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Garissa, Baringo and Samburu with malnutrition levels above emergency level. Other affected counties are Wajir, West Pokot, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kilifi and Kwale counties.

The high number of hungry people has been attributed to prolonged drought, Fall armyworm (FAW) infestations, and high fuel and fertilizer prices that constrained crop production activities especially for the poor households.

It is estimated that fall army worms destroyed 2,000 acres of maize in Makueni and Kitui Counties last season.

Livestock productivity is currently on a declining trend driven by below average forage and water resource levels which has driven migration of 40 – 80 per cent of the total livestock in pastoral counties out of their resident livelihood zones to neighbouring counties and across national borders to neighbouring countries like Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.

“Apart from the regular occurrences of endemic and notifiable livestock disease, livestock disease outbreaks were reported. An unidentified camel disease outbreak was reported in Garissa County during last year’s short rains season affecting production and marketability of livestock,” the assessment report says.

“There was an outbreak of Anthrax, resulting in 1000 camel deaths in Wajir County. In the southeast marginal agriculture cluster, 59 cases of rabies associated with dog bites were reported in Kitui.”

From the beginning of October 2022 livestock mortalities were reported across the pastoral and marginal mixed farming zones. The mortalities reported were 203,198 cattle, 584,250 goats, 615,407 sheep and 83,456 camels across Marsabit, Turkana and Samburu counties.

Kajiado, Laikipia and Nyeri Counties recorded a total of 475,363 livestock deaths due to the ongoing drought. Livestock mortality is driven by starvation, dehydration and disease as a result of the drought.

Worrying Future

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national maize production is expected to be about 35.4 million 90-kilogram bags, equivalent to 3.19 million metric tons next season. This implies that the harvest will be 10 -15 per cent below the five-year average. This is attributed to the forecast that indicates that March - May 2023 long rains will likely be below average in northern and eastern parts of Kenya.

 “The below-average long rains are likely to drive short-lived improvements in forage and water resources in the pastoral areas between April and May. However, a rapid decline and an earlier-than-normal depletion of these resources are expected from late June onwards, maintaining unreasonably high return distances to watering points for households and livestock,” says the report.