COP 28: A Global Crossroads- Supporters Rally, Critics Sound Alarms
Why COP28 is Important
In the age where climate change poses one of the world's greatest threats, COP28 takes centre stage in the steps towards combating what is now termed a global crisis. The Conference of Parties (COP) are meetings held annually whose mandate under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) is to negotiate collective action to reduce global emissions.
The 28th meeting of the COP held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, between 30th November and 12th December was a significant marker in history. The conference held the promise of curving a sustainable future. It is expected that this conference will bring global leaders, scientists, environmental activists, lobbyists, business leaders and other stakeholders together to commit to a greener planet.
Crucial Agendas and Expectations
One of the expectations for COP28, just like its predecessors, is that nations will commit willingly to combating climate change. While other conferences have seen countries committing to targets to reduce emissions, COP28 is a new hope for reaffirming this commitment.
According to activists the significance of COP28 as a milestone in climate history cannot be overlooked. "COP28 isn't just another conference – it's a crossroads in our fight for survival. With climate change as the starkest threat humanity faces, we must unite as scientists, activists, leaders, and citizens to forge a sustainable future." - Greta Thunberg, climate activist.
Frans Timmermans, the Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal added that "Dubai's desert sand holds the seeds of a greener future. COP28 presents a historic opportunity to transform from fossil fuel giants to climate action pioneers. Together, we can bend the curve of emissions and build a planet that thrives, not survives."
Importantly, the grapple for the inclusion of the word "fossil fuel” in the agreements is expected to take centre stage in the discussions. This is alongside other concerns such as fighting for justice for the most vulnerable communities affected while their contribution to climate change is minimal.
Since the Paris Agreement in 2015 at the UNFCCC’s COP21, emphasis on keeping the increasing global emissions well below 1.5℃ grows each year. Scientists say that we are running out of time in this fight as global emissions should ideally peak by 2025. The challenge now is to ensure a decline of 43% by 2030 hence the agenda of phasing out fossil fuels.
The urgency of fighting climate change is now top of mind for all stakeholders. COP28 is not “business as usual” as other conferences have been. Rather, it is the chance for parties to commit to more ambitious targets towards net zero. Despite COP28 being a forum for global cooperation towards a resilient future, there exists a dynamic of varied perspectives, an interplay between supporters and critics.
The Supporters’ Optimism
COPs are essentially a forum for leaders to champion a sustainable future. Previous conferences have yielded positive progress towards net zero. At COP26, parties agreed on the Breakthrough Agenda where commitments were made towards making cleaner technologies and making sustainable practices more accessible and affordable.
This agenda is significant as it was signed by countries accounting for about 50% of the global GDP. Notably, the commitment to the agenda was to be foreseen by members of the G7 countries, India, and Morocco among other big contributors to global emissions.
"COPs may be forums for talk, but they've yielded real action. The Breakthrough Agenda's commitment to clean tech accessibility, backed by half the global GDP, shows we're moving beyond pledges to concrete plans." - Patricia Espinosa, former Executive Secretary of UNFCCC.
At COP27, a new partnership was announced to help Indonesia stop using coal. The initiative saw countries committing to mobilizing $20 billion to enable a smooth and just transition to renewable energy. An achievable target of a period of between three to five years was set to implement the financing.
"Indonesia's coal phase-out partnership at COP27 proves even major emitters can take decisive steps. $20 billion for a just transition sets a precedent for collaborative solutions and achievable timelines." - Frans Timmermans, Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal.
COP28 presents an opportunity for stakeholders to forge efforts towards climate change mitigation by ensuring progress from the previous COPs. For instance, the conversations around the Global Stocktake held centre stage as parties were required to give an inventory of their efforts. It is an opportunity to celebrate milestones achieved, discuss challenges and share ideas on possible solutions.
As May Boeve, Executive Director of 350.org put it; "COPs remind us we're not alone in this fight. Sharing ideas and building partnerships like the Breakthrough Agenda fuel climate action. Open discussion about challenges paves the way for innovative solutions and keeps us moving forward."
Critics Sound the Alarm
Despite the notable positive progress experienced at the COP28, critics remain sceptical. For example on the Global Stocktake, the Director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Saleemul Huq emphasized, “The effectiveness of the Global Stocktake hinges on transparency and accountability. We need clear metrics to track progress, accessible data for independent verification, and consequences for missed targets. Otherwise, it's just greenwashing dressed up as a progress report."
On the presidency of the COP28, critics maintain that it is a glaring red flag. The president, Sultan Al-Jaber, is the CEO of UAE’s largest oil company concurrently heading a renewable energy company in the country. That Jaber is the head of the COP28 is seen as bulletproof for the global emitters.
It is argued that Al-Jaber’s presence is a significant show of rejection of the goal of phasing out fossil fuels. Additionally, his stance on the discussions is viewed as one of protecting the economic interests of oil companies despite his comments on clean energy.
"Al-Jaber's presence at COP28 is a bulletproof vest for global emitters, shielding them from real responsibility. His leadership sends a chilling message: fossil fuels are here to stay," said Saleemul Huq, Director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development
A cloak of cynicism ties around the effectiveness of the conference. Critics point out the fact that previous conferences have failed to attain the goals and targets set while falling behind on pledges. The pledge of $100 billion to help developing countries in mitigating climate change falls remarkably short of the estimated $2 trillion needed yearly by 2030.
"COP28's credibility is on fire with Al-Jaber at the wheel. His dual loyalties to fossil fuels and renewables create a smoke screen obscuring genuine progress towards phasing out coal and oil." Said May Boeve, Executive Director of 350.org
Additionally, the lack of clear guidelines on accountability for the COP agreements reeks suspicion and breeds distrust in the conference. While the conference discussions resulted in countries offering to reduce their emissions, there is no clear-cut way of ensuring compliance. Unless a system of monitoring is put in place, it is unfortunately all talk and "business as usual", especially for the large emission contributors. Regrettably, the mere feature of the term fossil fuel in the agreement texts is not enough to ensure phasing out.
On this, stakeholders from developing countries feel strongly that lack of accountability is a major threat to climate adaptation and mitigation. "COP28 is awash in a sea of empty promises without life rafts of accountability. Countries pledge emission reductions, but who holds their feet to the fire? This lack of transparency breeds distrust and jeopardizes the entire climate action effort." - Mohamed Nasr, Chair of the African Group of Negotiators implored.
Enter the concerns around major oil companies rejecting phasing out of fossil fuels. That the biggest oil company in UAE is planning to expand its operations shortly is a bit worrying. Sultan Al-Jaber insisted that the UAE will be at the forefront of funding carbon markets to support developing countries in adapting to climate change.
While this is a step in the right direction towards building resilience for vulnerable communities in the global South, critics fear that it is also fuel for greenwashing. The offer by the biggest emitters- who also form part of the strongest global economies-, to buy carbon credits seems like a way to protect economic interests in the short term while risking environmental degradation and unsustainability in the long run.
On this, Terry Pronto, the Executive Director of the Indigenous Environmental Network commented, "The biggest polluters offering to fund adaptation for vulnerable communities is like the arsonist handing out fire extinguishers. We need systemic change, not band-aid solutions that protect their profits while leaving the planet burning."
The COP28 agreements advanced carbon market trade with potential side effects looming. Countries such as South Korea, Switzerland and UAE have already moved with speed to buy credits from countries with seemingly less carbon footprint. These countries which include Kenya, Liberia and Ghana have thriving biodiversity which attracts polluters who seek to compensate for their “sins” through carbon sequestration projects.
Besides greenwashing, concerns over how the revenue from carbon credits will be shared are now stirring up. Do the participating seller countries have enough time and infrastructure to build frameworks to protect themselves over land rights issues? Are they limiting their future ability to meet their emission reduction targets? Critics fear that this is neocolonialism blooming.